Josh Allen, Wyoming QB, 6’5″ 233lbs
The most physically impressive QB in the draft is Josh Allen, who stands 6’5″. He has a laser rocket arm, and one draft expert said they expected him to throw the ball 90 yards at his pro day. He did not accomplish that feat, but he did wow coaches and general managers with his arm power. Allen comes from Wyoming, who plays in the Mountain West Conference and is coached by Carson Wentz’s college head coach and offensive coordinator. This gives him a boost in draft stock considering how well Wentz was prepared for the NFL. The two things Allen has for him, is his coach and his arm strength, but his red flags are that he played in the MWC and his career completion percentage is 56%.
A completion percentage that low is a giant red flag considering that he played in a Group of 5 Conference and wasn’t facing a strong defense every week. The other red flag when it comes to Allen, is the fact that his numbers really dipped from year two to year three at Wyoming, going from 3200 yards to 1800 yards. Allen did miss the last two regular season games during his Junior campaign due to an injury to his throwing shoulder, but he did come back and play in their bowl game, beating Central Michigan. Looking closer at his Junior season stats, they are a little troubling. He had four games at or below 50% completion and seven games with under 15 completions. In a league where ball control and completing passes is paramount, Allen will need to increase his accuracy a ton to be successful. When you compare Wentz’s collegiate stats to Allen’s, and presumably they were in the same offensive system, Wentz’s career completion percentage was 8% higher than Allen’s. With the small windows that you have to throw into in the NFL that 8% will be the difference between being a bust and being a 10-15 year starter.
Allen reminds me a little bit of JaMarcus Russell when he was coming out of LSU in 2006. He was all the rage at the combine and his pro day because he could throw the ball 60 yards from his knees. The only problem was that the League is about accuracy and not how far you can throw the ball. Russell and Allen are like sideshows who can wow the scouts, coaches, and GM’s with arm strength, which will get them past the fact that they are 50% passers. Heck, even Mel Kiper, Jr, the draft guru, has Allen as #1 QB in the draft. Allen is hypnotizing the draft expert with his arm.
None the less, we will grade Allen as we have the other three QBs, by the Parcells method.
- 3 years as the starter? – No (2)
- Is he a senior? – Yes, will have a degree
- Did he graduate? – Yes
- Did he start 30 games? – No (25)
- Did he win 23 games? – No (16)
- TD:INT ratio at least 2:1? – Yes (44:21)
- Completion percentage over 60? – No (56.2%_
3/7 criteria met
After reading all four breakdowns, if you are the Browns do you make him the face of the franchise? I feel that since they passed on Wentz they might feel pressed to take Allen since he is being compared to Wentz and played for Wentz’s coaches. What do you think?